Due to the escalation of abductions and killings in the Northern parts of the country, as well as the recent imprisonment of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, political analysts argue that President Bola Tinubu’s reelection come 2027 is threatened because he may be unable to win majority votes from the North and South east, thereby creating the chance for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to actualize his presidential ambition
By Udoka Ekeleme, Abuja
Political analysts said there was no better time for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to launch himself, once again, to the 2027 presidential race than in the month when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu government has seemingly capitulated to the terrorists killing and kidnapping Nigerians across the country for ransom payment. Since November 2025, Nigeria has been hit by wanton killings and abductions in different parts of the Northern Regions. The abductions and killings in Kebbi, Niger and Kwara States and alleged negotiations with, and ransom payment to terrorists in order to rescue those held hostage, have attracted vicious criticism to the government, from the Senate, notable citizens, Afenifere and the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
While the war by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Boko Haram and bandits rage against innocent citizens without much done to counter them, Atiku went ahead to declare his formal membership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Atiku Abubakar on Monday, November 24, 2025 formally registered as a member of the coalition-led ADC, marking what both party leadership and political analysts described as a defining moment in the opposition’s preparations for the 2027 presidential race.
Atiku picked up his membership card at Jada Ward 1 in the Jada Local Government Area of Adamawa State.
Speaking shortly after the exercise, he declared: “Now I have picked my membership card of the ADC. Now, the real opposition has begun. We will chase the APC out of government.” He urged his supporters nationwide to follow suit and register with the party.
The Adamawa State ADC Chairman, Shehu Yohanna, said Atiku’s formal registration marked the launch of a statewide mobilisation effort to expand ADC membership. “His registration has signaled the unveiling of statewide registration of members into the party,” Yohanna told journalists, calling on citizens, particularly youths and women, to take advantage of the opportunity and align with the ADC.
This development has put to rest months of speculation over whether the former vice president would officially take up membership in the coalition-led party following his resignation from the PDP in July 2025. It also formally activated the political transition he had been championing in recent months after stepping aside from the PDP, which he has repeatedly accused of lacking readiness to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Among top Adamawa coalition members present at the brief but symbolic ceremony were former Governor Bindow Jibrilla; Senator Aishatu Dahiru Binani; Senator Abdulaziz Nyako; and Senator Ishaku Abbo, signaling early cohesion around the Atiku movement.
On his part, the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the party welcomed Atiku’s decision to formalise his membership, noting that it would boost the confidence of others still hesitant to fully commit to the coalition.
He said, “For us in the party, it is nothing new because Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has been one of the leaders of the coalition from the start. So, it’s not surprising to us. What he did today was just formality, but it’s an important formality.
“It encourages us, and it would inspire so many other people who are skeptical or tentative. Now we expect that this will encourage such people. But for us, it’s not entirely a new thing.”
Atiku rejoined the PDP in 2017 and ran for president under its platform in 2019 and 2023, losing on both occasions. In July 2025, frustrated with what insiders described as irreconcilable internal divisions, he exited the party once again and has now officially anchored his 2027 bid within the coalition-led ADC.
Analysts said Atiku’s move formally activates the opposition realignment process ahead of 2027. While his critics point to age, past defeats and his history of party-switching, his supporters argue that his political resilience, national network and international profile remain unmatched among opposition figures.
Some pundits argued that Atiku’s declaration of membership of the ADC at a time of escalating insecurity has two implications for the 2027 presidential election. For one, the declaration, analysts said, attests to the fact that the former Vice President will likely take another shot at the presidential election. Atiku has been eyeing the Also Rock Presidential Villa since in the 1990s. Since the advent of democracy in 1999, Atiku has consistently contested the presidential election for a record five times consecutively. He contested in 2007 and lost to late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, in 2011 he contested and lost to Goodluck Jonathan, he also lost to late Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 (primary) and 2019. Once more, Atiku ran for president in 2023 where he lost to the incumbent President Tinubu.
Two, the declaration has equally assured citizens that there is still a vibrant opposition that can challenge Tinubu at the 2027 presidential election. Despite the touted rotational presidency between the North and South, many analysts said Atiku is eminently qualified to run for presidency in 2027. According to them, the disenchantment among of Northern masses against Tinubu government, especially with the recent spate of killings and abductions of school children, may work against Tinubu securing high number of votes in the Northern Regions. Under such atmosphere, Atiku remains the beautiful bride for the Northern masses and elite.
Another issue that will give Atiku upper hand against Tinubu in 2027 is the South east factor. At present, the region is feeling bitter against the government for the incarceration of its outspoken son, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu.
Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court in Abuja had slammed life imprisonment on the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Kanu for terrorism related offences on Thursday, November 20, 2025. The imprisonment of Kanu has sparked outrage in the region against the government.
For example, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe described Kanu’s conviction as an injustice against the South east region. Likewise, many groups in the South east region have come hard on the government, arguing that while Tinubu government was negotiating with terrorists, the same government labeled Kanu a terrorist for mere agitation against the marginalization of the Igbo of the South east.
As if Kanu’s conviction was not enough, Justice Omotosho further ordered him to be taken to the Sokoto Correctional Center to serve the life jail. This action has further infuriated most South easterners against Tinubu. Should election take place today, Tinubu cannot secure 10 percent of the total vote cast in the South east in a free and fair election.
For these and numerous other shortcomings of the Tinubu government, analysts have stressed that despite the much talked about rotational presidency, Atiku may be closer to winning the 2027 presidential election because most citizens are yearning for urgent change of government in Nigeria.
