Dangote Refinery Noah’s Ark IPO
In spite of the high cost of petroleum products caused by dysfunctional refineries in Kaduna, Port Harcourt and Warri, not a few Nigerians expressed confidence and delight at the coming of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Company, which floats an Initial Public Offer (IPO), with a bottom rate investment opportunity for members of the public to be part owners of the company, but with a caveat that shares may be subjected to manipulation in the Nigeria Stock Exchange, as it happened in the past
By Edu Abade
With a minimum of N525 per unit or N5,250 for 10 units for everyone, the Dangote Refinery Initial Public Offer (IPO), remains a Noah’s Ark Offer, because at the end of the day, even as it is tagged a public offer, whatever becomes its outcome will be calculated and attributed to the wealth of the richest man in Africa- Aliko Dangote.
However, Nigerians cannot also rule out the dimension of shares manipulation when Dangote was Chairman of the Nigeria Stock Exchange, NGX, during which Nigerians lost their hard-earned money and that is why some category of Nigerians are wary of joining the fray of those struggling to acquire the shares, albeit in a hurry.
Because as some of them reasoned, during the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, recapilalization exercise headed by former Governor in2009, when Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo, was governor, a lot of the shares acquired by Nigerians in First Bank of Nigeria, United Bank for Africa, UBA, Zenith, Oceanic Bank, Access Bank and all the other banks at that time ended up being manipulated, making many Nigerians to be wary of the Dangote Initial Public Offer, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of those promoting the IPO from the Dangote Group’s Marketing and Communication Department, most of who have their foundation from some of the now failed banks.
However, as gullible Nigerians rush to acquire units of the shares, the IPO raked in over N10 billion on the first day of its listing, and counting as of press time, just as President of Dangote Industries Limited, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, said the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO share price of ₦525 per unit could climb to over ₦10,000 sooner or later.
This, he believes is not a marketing gimmick, maintaining that small retail investors, members of the public or average Nigerians, who wish to buy between ₦50,000 and ₦100,000 worth of shares, will get priority allotment before big institutional investors in the IPO that offers 4.1 billion shares at ₦525, targets ₦2.15tn and will run from September 14, 2026 to October 13, 2026, with ten-share minimum at ₦5,250.
The planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, currently being offered at ₦525, could rise to as much as ₦10,000 in the future, says President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote.
In their estimation, the IPO is expected to give small-scale investors a better chance of getting shares, with Dangote saying they will be prioritized during the allotment process.
Speaking at a recent interview, Dangote explained how the IPO would work, saying investors seeking smaller allocations would be given priority over large institutional investors.
He specifically mentioned those looking to invest ₦50,000, ₦100,000 and other smaller amounts, saying, “When you do something like this, what is called an IPO, all the small-scale investors are the ones who will be given priority first.
“The big institutional investors who request large allocations will not get everything they ask for. But the small retail investors who want to buy ₦50,000 worth, or some buying ₦100,000 worth, and so on, they are the ones who will be given priority allocations.”
Dangote said after small-scale investors had been considered, the remaining shares would be distributed among other investors.
The astute billionaire businessman, who is bent on getting more money from impoverished Nigerians, quite apart from the much profits from the sale of petrol, also spoke about the possible future value of the refinery shares, saying the current ₦525 offer price could rise significantly, saying the shares could eventually reach ₦10,000.
He said, “As I was saying, this share, if you look at it, we are currently at ₦525. A day will come when this share will reach ₦10,000. Therefore, if you hold it, having bought it and it rises to ₦10,000, where you previously invested ₦5 million, it will now be worth over ₦50 million and you see, you have become wealthy by all standards.”
However, the ₦10,000 figure is Dangote’s projection and does not guarantee that the shares will reach that price after listing.
The eventual market value of the shares will depend on demand and supply, as well as the performance of the refinery, investor sentiment, refining margins, demand and broader economic conditions.
Dangote also said shareholders could have the option of receiving dividends in either Naira or Dollar, adding that the dollar option could help investors protect themselves against the effect of currency depreciation, particularly those with financial commitments outside Nigeria.
He gave the example of parents whose children are studying in the United Kingdom, adding, “The benefit of buying it is that holding this share will not prevent you from carrying out your regular work. You hold this share, and when dividends are paid, you won’t need to fear currency devaluation.
“That is because you can choose to receive your dividend in Naira or in Dollars. If you have a child studying at a school in England, for example, even if there is economic instability or currency devaluation, may God protect us, having this means what you receive will be in Dollars.”
He recalled the sharp depreciation of the Naira against the Dollar, saying the exchange rate had moved from about ₦400 to the dollar to as high as ₦1,800.
“So, your child won’t have to… avoid exchange rate shocks, like when rates moved from ₦400 up to ₦1,800. Most children were brought back home as a result. So, what we want to prevent is that kind of situation,” he said.
Full subscription of the Dangote Refinery IPO, which comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at ₦525 each is expected to raise about ₦2.15 trillion, while the minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing ₦5,250 and is scheduled to run from September 14, 2026 to October 13, 2026.
After the offer closes, applications will be processed, and investors will be informed of their allotments as announced by the Dangote Group.
Speaking further on the offer, Dangote, described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO as an opportunity for Nigerians and Africans to build long-term wealth by owning shares in one of Africa’s biggest industrial projects.
During the presentation of the “Facts Behind the Offer” on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in Lagos, Dangote said the $1.6 billion IPO, which he described as Africa’s largest, goes beyond capital raising to broaden ownership of the refinery.
“The Dangote Refinery IPO is more than an investment opportunity; it is an opportunity for millions of Nigerians and Africans to build lasting and generational wealth through ownership of a world-class industrial asset,” he said, maintaining that the refinery generated about N19.47 trillion in revenue and N2.55 trillion profit after tax, PAT, in the first half of 2026,” he said.
At the offer price, the refinery is expected to have an implied market capitalisation of about N65.22 trillion. Combined with Dangote Cement and Dangote Sugar, the Group’s listed companies could form an equity cluster valued at about N83.5 trillion on the NGX.
NGX Group Chairman, Umaru Kwairanga, described the transaction as a major milestone for Africa’s capital markets, while Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu said it demonstrated Africa’s growing capacity to mobilise capital for major investments.
Dangote said the IPO would enable investors to move from being consumers to owners of the refinery and participate in its long-term growth.
