Africa Risks Tobacco Prevalence
Although over 70 percent of smokers and users of various types of tobacco products globally want to quit, Africa is at a high risk of prevalence of smoking cigarettes and use of other lethal emerging products, especially among men, adolescents, university students and young women
By Edu Abade
Data emanating from tobacco control advocates and public health experts paints a gloomy picture of how tobacco industry giants like the British American Tobacco {BAT}, Philip Morris International {PMI} and Japan Tobacco International {JTI}, among others target Africa, especially children and youths with flavored cigarettes, nicotine and sundry emerging products.
Details of various aspects of the Tobacco Control Data Initiative [TCDI] dashboard presented recently at a training for journalists and advocates revealed a disturbing trend for six African countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC], Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia, South Africa and Ethiopia.
During the two-day workshop moderated by the Executive Director of the Renevlyn Development Initiative [RDI], Philip Jakpor, and organized by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa [CSEA] in collaboration with Development Gateway and the Tobacco Control Data Initiative, Rachel Kitonyo-Devotsu, whose presentation focused on The Importance of Data to Tobacco Control Reporting, revealed aspects of prevalence, trends, high risk groups, taxation, cessation, regulation, tobacco industry interference and youth exposure.
While revealing that 70 percent of smokers desire to quit smoking globally, cessation measures keep struggling in Africa, just as authors of the survey recommend use of brief counselling, quit lines, provision of NRT and use of Bupropion, Varenicline and Cystine, especially for Kenya and Ethiopia dashboard cessation pages.
“Overall tobacco use prevalence in the African region is declining among adults due to stronger control measures, though the total number of users has grown alongside population increases- however there are regional, gender and age differences.
“Taxation remains one of the least implemented tobacco control measures yet one of the most effective. Tobacco products are cheap in Africa even as the World Health Organization [WHO] recommends taxes ranging from 70 percent to 75 percent of the retail price of tobacco products,” she said.
Details of the data on African countries surveyed and published in the TCDI dashboard and presented by Thomas Van Huyssteen showed devastating tobacco harm on the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia, South Africa and Ethiopia. Although the figures remain very disheartening, the number of young smokers keep rising in Nigeria, just as children between ages five and six have been known to have been introduced to smoking in Kenya!
Specifically, in the DRC, illicit cigarettes are at least 8.62 percent of the market by conservative count (missing tax stamps), but the figure rises to 51.46 percent once cigarette packs still carrying the outdated pre-2022 “yellow” stamp are counted.
“Uganda and the United Arab Emirate [UAE] together account for 84.03 percent of the illicit supply origin, while two brands-Supermatch and Oris, make up roughly 92 percent of illicit products found. Ituri had the highest illicit rate of the eight provinces sampled; Sankuru was second at 25.90 percent.
Low-income areas (10.22 percent) outpaced high-income areas (7.84 percent),” the dashboard showed.
Besides, Development Gateway’s [DG] 2024 DaYTA survey of 4,675 adolescents (ages 10–17, 144 sites across 16 provinces) indicates that 11.9 percent currently use tobacco amounting to about 3.27 million adolescents nationally as against 18.5 percent or 5.08 million have ever used it.
Also, two-thirds of adolescent users first tried tobacco between the ages 11 and 14 and that age verification is “routinely bypassed” at point of sale, while most underage buyers purchase single cigarettes unchallenged.
The TCDI dashboard blamed the industry’s interference, whose top officials infiltrate government negotiations for the tobacco harm on the continent
“Government officials interviewed for TCDI’s evaluation documented more than three industry-interference attempts since 2018, including direct contact with officials and parliamentary deputies with tobacco-business ties blocking legislation. The DRC Chamber of Commerce formally opposed tobacco-control legislation in April 2017, citing 29 constitutional objections,” it stated.
The data on Kenya paints a more gory picture in that TCDI’s 2024 DaYTA survey found Kenyan children as young as five and six years old have tried tobacco or nicotine products; e-cigarette use starts as young as age nine.
“About 650,000 adolescents (ages 10–17) have experimented with tobacco or nicotine; 6.5 percent have ever tried it, 2.5 percent used within 30 days. Roughly 40 percent of adolescent users were exposed to tobacco marketing through digital or social media. Only between 5.4 percent and 8.7 percent of underage buyers were refused a purchase,” it stated.
In spite of the challenge, tobacco costs Kenya more than it earns just as the data revealed that a peer-reviewed 2024 study finds tobacco-related illness costs Kenya $396.1 million a year in direct healthcare spending alone; the full economic burden (including productivity loss) amounts to $544.7–$756.2 million.
“Tobacco’s own contribution to Gross Domestic Product [GDP] is only about $253 million-meaning the net annual loss to the economy is roughly $292-$503 million. In December 2024, Kenya unified its cigarette excise tax at Sh4,100 per 1,000 sticks, closing a filtered and non-filtered loophole that took an eight-year civil-society campaign to close.
“Nicotine pouches are now taxed at Sh2,000/kg, e-liquid at Sh100/ml, and e-cigarette devices at 40 percent of retail price-but overall rates remain below the WHO benchmark of 70 percent of retail price.”
Data on Nigeria shows that in spite of the prevalence of the use of cigarettes and other dangerous substances, Shisha remains in high use among the youth, some of whom have shisha pipes installed in their homes.
“TCDI commissioned dedicated shisha research in Nigeria-78 interviews across 13 states plus a 611-respondent survey across all six geopolitical zones. Flavours, curiosity, stress relief and low awareness of harm drive use; availability inside supposedly smoke-free zones is a documented gap; high cost and social stigma are the main barriers to use.
“The share of Nigerian smokers who say pictorial health warnings prompted them to think about quitting rose from 26.7 percent in 2012 to 43.3 percent in 2025. In 2024, Nigeria’s National Film and Video Censors Board banned the depiction and promotion of tobacco in film and music videos,” the dashboard showed.
In South Africa, tobacco harm comes in vaping-to-smoking pipelines. The TCDI’s 2022 e-cigarette survey (21,263 urban adults) found 11.3 percent had ever tried e-cigarettes and 4 percent were regular (weekly+) users, with under-35s (6.2–7.7 percent) far more likely to vape than over-35s (1.5-3.7 percent). Of the respondents who vaped before smoking, 19 percent went on to become regular smokers, a reverse-gateway pattern; separately, 13 percent who switched to vaping after smoking used it to quit combustibles.
Another disturbing dimension is that South Africa scored 72/100 on the 2019 Tobacco Industry Interference Index (higher worse than previous years). Documented tactics include JTI’s “#HandsOffMyChoices” campaign against the 2018 Control Bill and Philip Morris International-sponsored workshops for journalists promoting harm-reduction messaging.
“Illicit cigarettes are estimated at over 60 percent of South Africa’s total market by 2023. Legal cigarette sales fell nearly two-thirds since 2008 even as smoking prevalence has not fallen proportionally; domestic excise revenue fell from R14 billion (2019) to R9 billion (2023), a 35 percent drop, largely traced to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic era sales ban entrenching illicit supply networks.
“The Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Control Bill, South Africa’s first bill to directly regulate e-cigarettes and vapes, was introduced on the World No Tobacco Day, May 31, 2023. Public hearings ran through February 2025 and parliamentary committee hearings, still ongoing as of this research, have not yet produced a passed law,” it stated.
Data on Ethiopia is no less disheartening as its vaping story remains a youth story, not yet an adult one. Ethiopia’s 2023 Global Youth Tobacco Survey found 9.6 percent of between 13 and 15 years-old currently use e-cigarettes (boys 14.8 percent, girls 5.2 percent), which is far above the 4.6 percent overall adult tobacco-use rate from the 2024 adult survey.
It shows that about 27.7 percent of youth noticed tobacco advertising at point of sale, while 56.3 percent recall being taught about tobacco’s dangers in school.
“Yet a 2022 compliance study of 285 hospitality venues in Addis Ababa (Addis Ababa University, EFDA and TCDI, Gates Foundation-funded) found 64 percent of venues exceeded safe indoor air-quality thresholds, with average indoor PM2.5 more than double the WHO guideline, despite Ethiopia’s Proclamation 1112/2019-often described as one of Africa’s strongest tobacco-control laws.
“TCDI’s industry-tactics mapping report found a contract clause-referred to as “Article 9”-tied to the National Tobacco Enterprise that mandates government consult the tobacco industry before amending tobacco laws. The same report documents a cabinet minister’s letter that halted a planned excise-tax amendment.
“An independent 2018 study put Ethiopia’s illicit cigarette market at 18–19 percent. An industry-funded study within the same period claimed a far higher 40–44 percent illicit share-a gap TCDI’s mapping report highlights as a case study in how industry-funded research can be used to argue for lower taxes,” the survey concluded.
In his closing remarks, Philip Jakpor urged the participating journalists to dig out deep and far-reaching human angle stories on the tobacco industry interference with a view to ending the malaise that the industry has become and save African children, youths, university students, men and young women from death, diseases and becoming vagabonds, miscreants and lunatics on the streets of African cities and rural areas.
