In what appears a positive outlook for the Nigerian economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reviews upward Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 just as the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly report for January 16, 2026 reflected that the All-Share Index Gains 2.36 percent, while average daily crude oil production fell from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, representing a 0.9 percent (14,000 bpd) decrease
By Edu Abade
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s growth outlook for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points from 4.2 percent in the October 2025 report to 4.4 percent in January 2026.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Breton Woods Institution revealed that the improved forecast reflects better domestic conditions, including increased oil output, firmer investor sentiment, and a more supportive fiscal environment expected in 2026.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected to rise from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in both 2026 and 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilization and reform efforts in several large economies.
Despite the improved outlook, Nigeria’s 4.4 percent growth projection remains 0.2 percentage points below the Sub-Saharan African average of 4.6 percent. While the projected growth outlook is positive, it may not be sufficient to increase per capita income, absorb Nigeria’s growing labour force, or reduce poverty. This is largely due to continued dependence on the oil sector, exchange rate conditions, and the slow pace of fiscal and structural reforms.
The Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA) stated that to sustain growth momentum, policy efforts should focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, especially curbing inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and accelerating reforms that improve the business environment.
Moreover, expanding non-oil exports and supporting productivity in key sectors would also help reduce vulnerability to external shocks and support more inclusive growth over the medium term.
Also, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) weekly report for January 16, 2026, showed that the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 2.36 percent, closing at 166,129.50 points, while market capitalization increased by 2.48 percent to ₦106.354 trillion. The gain signifies strong market activity and increased participation in equities and exchange-traded products.
Furthermore, investors traded a total of 4.607 billion shares, valued at ₦130.636 billion, across 263,439 deals in the week under review, up from 4.164 billion shares worth ₦94.026 billion in 248,254 deals recorded in the preceding week. The financial services sector led the activity chart, accounting for 3.126 billion shares valued at ₦47.2 billion across 94,186 deals, contributing 67.8% to the total equity turnover volume and 36.2% to the total equity turnover value. The services sector followed with 353.4 million shares worth ₦5.1 billion in 17,764 deals, while the ICT sector came third with 277.3 million shares valued at ₦18.0 billion across 28,525 deals. The rise in equities indicates that investors are regaining confidence in the market, likely driven by expectations of stable economic conditions and strong corporate earnings.
To build on the positive market momentum, policymakers should ensure well-communicated monetary and fiscal policies, enhance transparency in corporate reporting, and strengthen investor protection measures. Proactive steps in these areas will help sustain market confidence, encourage broader participation, and attract long-term capital to the equity market.
Meanwhile, January 2026 Monthly Oil Market report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production fell from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, representing a 0.9 percent (14,000 bpd) decrease. Likewise, production fell 5.2 percent short of Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota, marking the fifth consecutive month of missed output targets, and remained 30.9 percent below the national production target of 2.06 million bpd.
The continued inability to meet production quotas reflects operational inefficiencies and key challenges, including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and infrastructure constraints. These factors limit output and oil export earnings, with direct implications for government revenue and foreign exchange inflows.
To improve oil production, the government should partner with the private sector by providing an enabling environment and security to drive increased funding for upgrading and modernizing pipelines, refineries, and other oil production facilities. It is also important to ensure proper maintenance of these assets and strengthen pipeline security to prevent disruptions. Over time, expanding non-oil exports and promoting economic diversification would help reduce the country’s reliance on oil revenues.
