Is Tinubu Too Frail To Campaign?
*Reasons President Outsourced Campaign Responsibilities
Tongues continue to wag over President Bola Tinubu’s smart concealment of outsourcing his campaign responsibilities in what he refers to as governance continuity or “Nigeria needs more attention now than ever”, however, his critics, as well as major opposition parties, insist that there are more damning reasons behind the facade than the posture of the President
By Udoka Ekeleme, Abuja
In the past one week, certain questions that relate to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision not to engage in the rigorous country-wide campaigns for his reelection next year, keep dominating the political and media space. Since early last week, precisely on Sunday October 11, 2026, rumours had filtered that the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF) comprising governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC), had concluded plans to not allow Tinubu be fully involved in the party’s nation-wide campaigns to sell himself directly to the electorate, and reel out his performance statistics that have touched the lives of ordinary people who make up the electorate.
Confirming the rumoured stance of the PGF, a die-hard supporter of Tinubu’s reelection bid and member of the APC, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, came out on a video that went viral to clear the air, and stated the reasons behind what the governors had intended to do. Kalu said Tinubu did not need to engage in the rigorous campaigns because party’s foot soldiers and bigwigs were already mobilizing nation-wide support for the sitting President.
Hence the questions: “Can Tinubu convince hungry and angry Nigerians, by proxy, to reelect him as their President a second time?” “Apart from the now cliche and redundant renewed hope agenda mantra, what other concrete achievements that affect the ordinary people positively can the President present to the people during campaigns?”
At the inauguration of his Campaign Council on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, in Abuja, Tinubu, himself, was to confirm that he would not move round the country to campaign. President Tinubu said he may not attend every campaign rally ahead of the 2027 general election, citing governance demands and the need to meet Nigeria’s financial obligations.
Addressing party leaders and members, the president said his responsibilities as head of state would require him to remain focused on governance. At the same time, campaign officials coordinate activities across states and local government areas.
According to him, “Nigeria needs more attention now than ever before. The responsibility of this office does not pause. “So, you will excuse me from going everywhere with you; we have bills to pay. The American creditors cannot wait”.
He said the government also needed to attract investors willing to make long-term commitments to Nigeria, suggesting his administration would keep economic and financial responsibilities a priority during the campaign season.
The president said he agreed with party members who advised him not to let campaign activities distract him from governing the country. “You’ve warned me not to allow the rigour of the campaign to distract me from governance, I hear you. I am in full agreement with your decision. Nigeria needs more attention now.
“To me, I am your errand man. Even for the president, I raise my hand for full commitment that we abide by my promises and the manifestos, the objective, the intention of our party. That’s all I give you”.
Since Tinubu explained why he would not be fully involved in his own campaign, many analysts have weighed in on the possible reasons the President would not want to waste his time on rigorous country-wide campaigns. Many have argued that Tinubu is frail due to aging and ailments associated with old age. Officially, Tinubu presents himself as a man in his 70s, but those who know him closer have confessed that he may be in his middle or late 80s. Naturally, people of this age bracket cannot muster the stamina to engage in strenuous activities. The question arises again, is it on account of old age that Tinubu has declined to campaign?
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), against insinuations in some quarters that Tinubu may be too frail to campaign due to old age or some health issues, thinks otherwise. The party insisted that there is more to the unpopular decision than meets the eyes. It said those who must aspire to lead as president cannot shy away from responsibility and accountability because they must endeavour to sell themselves to the electorates, but if they are not strong enough to engage in campaigns, they should disengage from the race.
According to Obiora Ilo, the campaign spokesman of the NDC, Tinubu has failed to deliver verifiable democratic governance to the electorate, and thus, is tactically avoiding direct contact with the electorate. Ilo said hungry and angry Nigerians would not want to hear another rhetoric promises from Tinubu.
“Tinubu want to avoid Nigerians because he doesn’t have anything to tell them to convince them to vote him again. That’s why he has outsourced his responsibility in order to avoid accountability”, Ilo told his interviewer on Arise Television last week.
Many opposition leaders have argued, also, that majority of the electorate in the Northern regions, South east and South south geopolitical zones have rejected the sitting President due to the hardship and insecurity in the land. These argued that there is fury in different parts of the country against Tinubu, adding that should he move to campaign in these areas, he may be booed by the electorate, a situation that would drastically diminish his elective values. In the Northern regions, there appears to be numerous united blocks against Tinubu’s reelection.
For example, in Borno State, the home state of the vice president Kashim Shettima, many youths were arrested last month by operatives of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) in that state for wearing vests and T-shirts with the inscription, “Tinubu Must Go”. It has also been reported that across the Northern regions, unidentified youths have been tearing campaign posters of the President as a way to vent their displeasure against the hardship and escalating insecurity in the country since the administration began in 2023.
A popular religious leader in the North, Sheikh Abubakar Bala Gusau, has declared that the APC would lose the presidential election before mid-day on January 16, 2027.
He said nobody in his right senses, especially in the North will vote for Tinubu. He added that those seen defending Tinubu in the three regions of the North have mental issues.
“Nobody in his relationship right senses, especially a Northerner, will vote for Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Gusau said.
Gusau also criticised those defending the president, claiming that they had mental issues.
His remarks highlight the political debate surrounding Tinubu’s popularity in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general election, particularly amid concerns about living costs and economic hardship.
In the South east, analysts said despite what they referred to as the hide-and-seek elite support for Tinubu, especially among the governors, the incarceration of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), by Tinubu government would attract the ire of the region’s electorate who would boycott APC presidential campaigns in the region to the chagrin of the incumbent President. In 2023 when Kanu had not been incarcerated, Tinubu’s APC struggled to secure only about five per cent votes in the South east during that year’s presidential election. Even some of the notable politicians who contested on the platform of the APC in the South east such as Senator Orji Uzor Kalu and the current Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, were unable to deliver their wards for Tinubu, yet they won their election.
Tinubu’s perceived elitist government has also aroused the anger of the electorate in the South south region. It is, therefore, perceived that his campaign rally in the South south would be greeted with boycott and attacks that can humiliate the President. The two regions of South east and South south are perceived to be the strongest hold of the presidential candidate of the NDC, Peter Obi.
For example, a Nigerian social commentator in the Niger Delta identified as Asari Senior, has reportedly called on President Tinubu to surrender his second term ambition citing rising fuel prices, economic hardship and concerns over the state of the country’s refineries.
In a video circulating on social media, Asari Senior expressed frustration over the rising cost of living, lamenting that Nigerians were struggling to afford basic necessities amid persistent economic challenges.
He criticised the high cost of fuel and other essential commodities, arguing that the situation had become increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens.
“Our fuel, our everything is too expensive in this country. We have refineries, but they are not working in this country. Nothing is working in this country, and we cannot continue to be in this condition,” he said.
For Mr Anthony Ehilebo, Special Adviser on Media and Digital Communication to Governor Seyi Makinde’s 2027 Presidential Campaign, has dismissed the APC’s claim that Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Seyi Makinde and Donald Duke are no match for President Bola Tinubu, saying the President should be more worried about Nigerians than opposition politicians. This position appears to be the norm in the South west region, suggesting that Tinubu is unpopular even in his own region where he has made numerous appointments.
The APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, had declared that the opposition figures were no match for Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, citing the administration’s achievements in infrastructure and other sectors. He made the remarks while receiving members of the Forum of APC House of Representatives Aspirants at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja recently.
But Ehilebo challenged Tinubu to campaign in Kaduna and defend his administration’s record, arguing that economic hardship and the state of public infrastructure would be major issues in the 2027 election.
“If the President is not afraid, he should come out and go to Kaduna on 24 October to campaign. Then he will see what Nigerians will tell him.
“If he believes he has performed well, I double-dare him to go to Kaduna and declare that he wants to run for a second term.
“The election is not between us and the APC, or between the APM and the APC. It is the APC versus Nigerians. The APC will simply line up, and it will be facing 240 million Nigerians, plus the 49.7 per cent of the population that has been plunged into extreme multidimensional poverty. Those are the people they will meet at the polling units”.
In many quarters, it is said that Tinubu’s only hope of winning the presidential election next January is either through money politics that will result in vote buying or outright rigging that will involve deployment of security agents to intimidate voters and manipulate results using INEC officials. On money politics, the 33 governors backing Tinubu, it was gathered, have been directed to muster the financial strength to induce voters. The Presidency on its part is squeezing money from money generating parastatals, some of which are owing contractors heavily because they have not adequate funds to pay contractors.
On the area of manipulation and rigging, Tinubu and APC may find it extremely difficult to manipulate result due to the resistance that would come from the electorate who have sworn that they must protect their votes even to the point of death. Some opinion leaders including Pat Utomi, Dan Ulasi, Rotimi Amaechi among others have publicly declared that the international community would be fully involved in monitoring result collation which they said must be made public from the polling units.
Also, Microsoft and Google have promised to strengthen election safeguards by providing platforms that will work against digital manipulation of results.
